8 months ago
From cornerstone macro research- Nancy lazar. Good news on economy in 2021 -Our base case real GDP forecast had been 2.5% for 2021. And we’d been assuming $500b in fiscal stimulus, which would add 1.5% to growth, taking it up to 4%. As we outlined in detail in our Dec 11 report, we raised our 2021 real GDP forecast from 4% to 6%, in anticipation of additional fiscal stimulus and the vaccine rollout. Below is a quick summary:The assumed ~$900b of fiscal stimulus would boost real GDP by 2.6ppts, putting it over 5%. Vaccine distribution could spark a V-rebound in travel & leisure of about 40% q/q a.r., say starting in 2Q. That would boost real GDP growth by another 1ppt. Net, we raised our real GDP forecast from 4% to 6%, which would be the strongest recovery since 1983.